I’ve got a flight to catch at 5:20 — headed to Cleveland for the Sports Media 360 conference — and a full day of work to squeeze in between now and when I leave the office around 2:30. Thus, there is no time to waste.
Let’s get right to our usual Friday Morning Would debate.
Today, we are going to look at two running backs who have had up and down seasons to this point: Dallas battering ram Marion Barber and Panthers second-year scamperer Jonathan Stewart.
A few weeks ago, when Barber was tearing it up and Stewart was on the sidelines nursing what seemed to be an endless array of maladies, this would have been a no-brainer.
But as we know, things can change quickly in the NFL. And as Week 7 approaches, I am suggesting that you start Jonathan Stewart over Marion Barber.
Here’s why:
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Health
Seems ironic right?
Well, over the last month Barber has battled an injured quad and a fractured thumb, both of which are still issues now. Despite Barber’s proclamation that his quad is “no longer a problem,” many in Dallas aren’t so sure.
We’ll see. Running backs coach Skip Peetesaid the quadriceps injury is something that would linger for a long time. After sitting out the Carolina game, Barber was not the same runner against Denver and Kansas City.
Barber is coming off a bye, which is good and should have him feeling more refreshed than he’s been. Still, Barber only has one game this season in which he’s had more carries than the amount Stewart got last week (17). And if Barber is banged up at all (which he appears to be) the Cowboys have Tashard Choice and now-healthy Felix Jones to take carries.
Jonathan Stewart dealt with a Achilles’ issue earlier this year, but seems to be over it. The evidence? His 17-carry, 110-yard performance last week. Barber, on the other hand, hasn’t had a game over 3.7 yards per carry since returning from the quad injury.
Opportunity
I touched on this above. Marion Barber has two very good running backs ready to steal carries from him, which is why he has carried the ball 14, 18, 11, and 15 times this season. Stewart only has one other back — DeAngelo Williams — stealing carries from him, and garnered 17 carries this week in what was really his first completely healthy week of the season.
Despite their cumulative totals to this point in the season, I actually see a greater likelihood of Stewart getting 15 carries than Barber this week.
Moving forward, I expect Stewart to settle into the role he had over the second half of last season when he and DAW joined forces to form the most potent 1-2 running back punch in the league. In five out of the Panthers’ final 10 games, Stewart had 15 or more carries and he scored 6 TDs.
He is not going be a sure-fire start every week, so you will need to assess the matchup. But most weeks he will provide solid value for a flex player, with the occasional #2-type production.
Matchup
This is where I really give Stewart the edge this week.
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Guess who is dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game? The Buffalo Bills.
Guess who the Carolina Panthers play this week? The Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo is giving up an average of 181.8 yards per game on the ground and has surrendered eight TDs. They have struggled to stop teams like Cleveland and the Jets from running the ball, neither of which you’d really consider a great running team. Carolina, however, is 8th in the league and rushing and that ranking is rising by the week.
This is a matchup tailor-made for starting both Carolina backs.
The Cowboys don’t have a terrible matchup by any stretch. Atlanta is only 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (118.2), but that is a pretty big difference from 181.8. Plus, Atlanta has only given up three TDs on the ground all year, and we saw what they did to Matt Forte last week.
In the end, I think there are three very clear signs for why Jonathan Stewart is a better play than Marion Barber this week. It’s not a slam-dunk by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s the kind of bold move that could end up netting you 2-3 extra fantasy points this week; and who knows, that could be the difference between a win and a loss.
Jonathan Stewart Week 7 projection: 16 carries, 97 yards, TD
Marion Barber Week 7 projection: 13 carries, 58 yards, 2 rec, 17 yards
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* – Jonathan Stewart photo credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images via About.com
* – Marion Barber photo credit: The Red Zone Report
The post Friday Morning Would…You Rather Start Marion Barber or Jonathan Stewart in Week 7? appeared first on Midwest Sports Fans.